Quantum Threat IndexEXPERIMENTAL

Risk Intelligence Dashboard

Calibrating

Quantum risk, at a glance.

The quantum threat to cryptography is real but poorly understood — buried in research papers, distorted by headlines. QTI distills the primary evidence into a visual threat signal anyone can read and trust.

Shor's Algorithm Progress

// ADVANCEMENT TOWARDS QUANTUM ATTACK CAPABILITY (RSA-2048 FACTORING · SHOR/REGEV)

0.293%
OF RSA-2048 TARGET
(~0.4% on difficulty-adjusted scale)
481632641282565121K2048(DISPUTED)35(6 BITS)VERIFIED~10^617(2048 BITS)TARGET
VERIFIED RECORDDISPUTED CLAIM
TARGET
~10 YEARS TO Q-DAY

Global PQC Readiness

// DEFENSIVE CAPABILITY TIMELINE

35%
GLOBAL READINESS
65% VULNERABILITY GAP
STARTSTANDARDSADOPTIONMIGRATED35% READYCURRENT100% READYTARGET
READY
VULNERABLE
TARGET
COMPLEXITY-WEIGHTED SCALE (BY FRICTION)

Threat Vectors

System threat assessment by domain

Banking & Web (RSA/ECC)

Stable

Stable - Projected safe until 2035+. TLS connections use ephemeral keys, limiting harvest-now-decrypt-later exposure.

Current Protection

TLS 1.3 with forward secrecy protects real-time transactions

Timeline

Expert consensus projects safety through 2035 at minimum. Note: a 2025 Google study reduced the theoretical qubit requirement for breaking RSA-2048 by 20x, but hardware remains orders of magnitude away.

Migration Path

NIST PQC standards finalized. Major browsers implementing. See Global PQC Readiness.

Recommendation

No immediate action required. Begin planning PQC migration for 2027-2030.

Bitcoin Network

Stable

Stable - Expert estimates place the threat window in the mid-2030s. P2PKH addresses with unrevealed public keys remain secure. Quantum-resistant proposals are in early discussion.

Mempool Gap (Sniper Scope)
Time to Crack ECDSA10+ years
Block Confirmation~10 min

Massive safety margin: crack time vs block time ratio is ~1.3M:1

Canary Monitor
Satoshi Stash (P2PK)
Last checked: 1/5/2026
Silent

If these early coins move, ECDSA may be compromised.

Lifeboat Protocol (BIP)
Concept
Proposal
Code
Testnet
Mainnet

Early research and community discussion phase

Privacy (Long-term Secrets)

Critical

Critical - Harvest Now, Decrypt Later (HNDL) is an active threat. Data encrypted today may be decrypted in 10-15 years.

Store Now, Decrypt Later (SNDL)

Adversaries are collecting encrypted data TODAY, storing it until quantum computers can decrypt it. This is not a future threat - harvesting is happening now.

At-Risk Data Categories
  • State secrets (25+ year sensitivity)
  • Medical records
  • Corporate trade secrets
  • Personal communications
  • Financial records

Even if Q-Day is 2035, data harvested in 2026 will be readable by 2035.

Migrate to PQC immediately for any data requiring long-term confidentiality.

Scientific Progress

Caution

Cautious - Error correction improving steadily but exponential scaling not yet demonstrated.

Momentum Arrow
↗
Linear Up
Progress velocity indicator
What We Track
  • +Quantum Error Correction breakthroughs
  • +Logical qubit scaling
  • +Peer-reviewed publications
What We Ignore
  • -Raw physical qubit announcements
  • -Marketing press releases
  • -Unverified claims
Current Assessment

Progress is steady but not accelerating. Below-threshold error correction demonstrated (Google Willow), but ~1M physical qubits still needed for cryptographic attacks.

Hype vs Reality

Media sentiment divergence over time

Divergence Graph

Hype Index vs Expert Sentiment

+9
Gap Score
Hype Index
Expert Sentiment(click for citations)

Headline Decoder

Notable claims, fact-checked

Accurate

“Coinbase launches expert board to assess quantum computing threat to crypto”

Well-framed reporting. Correctly states current quantum machines cannot crack Bitcoin's algorithms and frames the threat as requiring proactive preparation, not panic. Note: the article's 'at least a decade' timeline is on the conservative end — other credible sources place the window closer to the mid-2030s.

Source
Accurate

“Quantum computing is getting closer, but quantum-proof encryption remains elusive”

Solid reporting citing authoritative sources (GAO, NIST, Trusted Computing Group). Correctly identifies the real problem: not the quantum threat itself, but the difficulty of migrating to post-quantum cryptography in time. Notes 91% of organizations have no formal PQC roadmap.

Source
Accurate

“Quantum computers could be powerful enough to crack Bitcoin a few years after 2030”

Measured and well-sourced. Quotes the CEO of Nvidia quantum partner Alice & Bob, who acknowledges current quantum computers are 'extremely small and extremely slow' and places the cryptographic threat timeline at a few years after 2030. Conveys urgency about preparation without overstating near-term risk.

Source
Overstated

“Breaking encryption with quantum computers may be easier than we thought”

The underlying research is real — Google's Craig Gidney showed RSA-2048 could theoretically be factored with under 1 million noisy qubits, a 20x reduction from 2019 estimates. However, the headline is sensationalized. No quantum computer with anywhere near 1 million qubits exists today; the largest have around 1,500 physical qubits.

Source
Overstated

“Cracking Bitcoin-Like Encryption Through Quantum Computing Could be 20x Easier Than Thought”

Covers the same Gidney research as above. Includes appropriate caveats in the body text, but the headline conflates RSA-2048 research with 'Bitcoin-Like Encryption' — Bitcoin uses elliptic curve cryptography, not RSA. Does not clearly convey how far away capable hardware remains.

Source
High Hype

“Microsoft announces 'quantum transistor moment' with Majorana 1 chip”

Multiple physicists contest Microsoft's claims. One stated 'any company claiming to have a topological qubit in 2025 is essentially selling a fairy tale.' Nature published the paper but explicitly noted the results do not represent evidence for Majorana zero modes. CEO Satya Nadella's promotional framing significantly outpaced the science.

Source

Executive Recommendation

Monitoring phase for most assets. Begin PQC migration planning now for data requiring long-term confidentiality. Harvest-now-decrypt-later is an active threat.

Desktop Recommended

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